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MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
Period Return
+34.49%
+$138.34 / share
Period High
$551.15
Intraday peak
Period Low
$377.39
Intraday trough
Avg Daily Vol
27.10M
Period average
Moving Averages & Trend Signals
$518.46
Price is 4.0% above
$504.95
Price is 6.8% above
20-day MA is above 50-day MA - a traditionally bullish trend signal.
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Technical patterns · Support/resistance · Price targets
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Technical Patterns
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Volume Analysis
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Price Targets
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$MSFT Community
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I hold MSFT in my retirement income portfolio and I get asked all the time whether I am worried about the yield. Here is my answer. I do not care about the current yield. I care about the yield on cost in ten years. Microsoft Corporation has raised the dividend every year for as long as I have owned it. If that continues my yield on cost will be solid regardless of what the stock price does. The mistake I see income investors make is chasing yield. You buy something yielding 8 percent and it cuts the dividend. Now you have capital loss and income loss. I would rather own a 2 percent grower that becomes a 6 percent yield on cost in a decade than a 7 percent yielder that gets cut. Slow and steady wins this race.
MSFT tangible book value vs market cap. Run the numbers yourself. The gap is enormous. You are paying for goodwill and brand premium and hope. Microsoft Corporation is a fine business but at this price you are gambling on future cash flows that may never materialize. I will pass until the multiple compresses to something that reflects actual asset value.
Every time I look at MSFT I see the same thing. A crowded long with deteriorating fundamentals hiding behind a narrative. Microsoft Corporation guided down last quarter and the stock went up. That is not a healthy market. That is momentum. And momentum works until it does not. Short interest is low. Borrow is cheap. Nobody is positioned for a downside surprise. That is exactly when surprises hurt the most. I am not saying crash tomorrow. I am saying the risk reward is terrible from here.
Looking at MSFT through a semiconductor cycle lens. Microsoft Corporation is in the semi supply chain and the cycle dynamics matter more than company specific fundamentals right now. Fab utilization is above 90 percent which is the threshold where pricing power shifts to the suppliers. But capex is elevated and new capacity is coming online in the next 12 to 18 months. That typically leads to a supply glut and margin compression. We are in the sweet spot of the cycle now but the inflection is coming. Are you pricing in the cycle turn?
The 2s10s spread is telling you something about MSFT that the equity market is ignoring. The curve is pricing in slowing growth. Microsoft Corporation is a growth stock. Growth stocks do poorly when growth slows. It really is that simple. The bond market has been right more often than the stock market at inflection points. Right now the bond market is flashing yellow and the stock market is acting like the light is green. One of them is wrong. I am betting on the bond market.
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Read articleI'll be honest - I was skeptical of technical analysis for years. It seemed like astrology for finance bros. Lines on a chart, mystical patterns with animal names, and people claiming they could predict the future based on a shape that sort of looked like a head and shoulders. It felt unscientific.
Then I actually studied it properly, and I realized I'd been wrong - not about the patterns themselves, but about what technical analysis actually is. It's not prediction. It's the study of supply and demand made visible through price action. A support level isn't magic - it's a price where enough buyers have previously stepped in that they're likely to do so again. Resistance is the opposite. That's human psychology encoded in candlesticks.
The charts on this page exist to help you see what the market is actually doing, not what you think it should be doing. Price and volume don't lie - they reflect the collective actions of every participant, from retail traders to algorithmic funds. When you learn to read them, you stop arguing with the market and start listening to it.
I still believe fundamentals determine long-term outcomes. A company's stock price will eventually reflect its earnings and cash flow. But in the short and medium term, price action tells you about sentiment, positioning, and momentum. Combining fundamental analysis with technical awareness gives you a more complete picture than either approach alone. That's not a hot take - it's what professional analysts actually do, even if they won't admit it publicly.